For the best VPN and American-friendly sportsbooks be sure to check out Sportsbet, Cloudbet and Nitrobetting.
Now that the FIFA World Cup is well underway, we take the time look at which half offers the best betting value.
You’d be forgiven for thinking that most of betting opportunities take place during the 1st half due the vast amount of 1st half betting options.
In fact, most of the action statistically takes place in the 2nd half.
1st Half FIFA World Cup Bets
Thus far, only 32% of the goals scored in the 2022 FIFA World Cup up until today (29 November 2022) were scored in the 1st half. If you trace it back further, only 37% of the goals scored in the 2018 FIFA World Cup were scored in the 1st half.
So, what to do? Naturally there are betting opportunities in the 1st half if you know what to look for, particularly scoring markets.
The possibility of a draw is significantly higher in the 1st half of a match compared to the 2nd half, whether it’s 0-0 or even 1-1.
Consider these bet types:
1×2 Bet
In the 1×2 markets for the Wales vs England match you’ll see that the odds favor a draw in the 1st half over the 2nd half.
Draw-no-bet or handicap
With the draw-no-bet market, your bet will be refunded if the 1st half ends in a draw. A handicap with a +/- .5 also removes the possibility of a draw.
2nd Half FIFA World Cup Bets
Now the 2nd half is a different beast altogether. You’ll have substantially more winning opportunities in the form of
- Live betting
- Goal betting
- Corner betting
Live betting
Only placing your live bets in the 2nd half affords you the luxury of analyzing data from a team’s 1st half performance to assess which bets would be most profitable and the likely events to follow.
During the 2022 FIFA World Cup up to now, 68% of the goals were scored in the 2nd half, while the 2018 stats reveal that 63% of the goals were scored in the 2nd half.
But is no rare occurrence as stats also reveal that the majority of goals scored in the 2010 and 2014 FIFA World Cups occurred in the 2nd half. Plus, the majority of corners and cards also happen in the 2nd half.
So, it makes much more sense to focus on the 2nd half when it’s obvious that there’s more action taking place. Further research indicates that there are several prominent betting windows.
Pre-match/live goal betting
During the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 FIFA World Cups the vast majority of goals were scored in the 2nd half during open play i.e. not from corners, free kicks, or penalties.
In the 2018 FIFA World Cup several betting windows were identified based on the number of goals scored:
- Minute 45-60 = 28% of all goals
- Minute 61-75 = 16% of all goals
- Minute 75-90 = 19% of all goals
On top of that, data indicated that teams that scored the first goal in their 2018 FIFA World Cup matches, went on to win the match.
There are several bet types to consider such as correct score, 1st goal in the 2nd half and exact goals which boast good odds.
Corners
When comparing corner kicks in the 2018 FIFA World Cup it shows that there was a combined 606 corner kicks taken:
- 341 Corners (56.3%) in the 2nd half
- 265 Corners (43.7%) in the 1st half
- 126 Corners (20.8%) between the 61st and 75th minutes
Historical World Cup data shows that the most corner kicks were taken in the 1st and last 30 minutes of the matches.
Pick the right FIFA World Cup bets
Naturally, you need to pick your own bets based on your own analysis and research. Find out which teams perform well against tier-1 teams and which players are available and which ones have been suspended or injured.
Don’t forget that during the World Cup there are always exceptions to the rule where an underdog outperforms the favorite and cause an upset.